A Chat with Bill Shorten

G’Day Mr Shorten,

I want to have a little chat with you about your campaign to rebuild the ALP. I can’t be at the meeting at Coorparoo tonight, but if I was there, and if I was given a few minutes, here’s what I’d say.

There is, to quote your speech of April 22, a “widespread, genuine passion for rebuilding the Labor Party,” and you’re right. The Labor Party needs to change…but, to what? 

It’s not enough to be not the Liberal Party and it’s not enough for you to be not Tony Abbott. You said in your speech that “we need to change our party.” Those of us on the left cheered.

But now what?

 You spoke of your mandate as the first member-elected Leader of the Labor Party. It’s not true, and we all know it. The rank-and-file elected Anthony Albanese to lead the party, and that vote was over-ruled in the Party Room. I’m not sure how you view that, but out here in the suburbs, the members who voted for a Leader are left with the impression that their vote was a cynical, feel-good attempt to make us feel included, while not actually including us.

Your commitment to rebuild the Labor Party is something the left desperately wants to believe in, but last year’s vote for leader has left members sceptical – and that’s not a personal swipe at you, Bill. It’s just the way it is.

Four million people voted Labor in last year’s election, eh? How many of them voted Labor because they didn’t trust Tony Abbott? How many of them voted Labor because the Greens are seem as too extreme? Do we know what motivated those voters? (It’d be a top idea to find out!)

How many 2013 Labor voters actually understood Labor’s policies and supported them?

Cutting the ties?

You spoke passionately about redefining Labor’s relationship with the unions, about ridding the Party of corruption, about a greater say in candidate preselection and about making it easier for people to become members of the Australian Labor Party. These are all positive moves, yet even taken together, I doubt that they’re enough to attract many new members, or even to attract lapsed members like me back to the party.

Internal party machinations and affiliations and processes are endlessly fascinating to the wonks – what about those blokes you spoke to on the tarmac when the Royals were leaving on Saturday? Do they care? What about the staff at Coorparoo Bowls Club who’ll bring you a glass of water tonight? Are these the things they care about?

Joining a political party is not like buying a T-shirt or a cup of coffee, or even a car. It’s a profound and individual commitment to a philosophy, a set a beliefs and values that are more enduring that many marriages.

People join a political party because they share the ideological fundamentals of the party. They join a political party because they support the policies of that party. They join a political party to help effect change and have their say.

Most people don’t join political parties because it’s easy to do, or because it’s corruption-free, or because it’s not the political arm of the union movement.

You said “We need a new Chapter One, a democratically-drafted statement that captures what modern Labor stands for” and you talked about the need for unity and focus.

There it is: the question on every left-leaning Australian’s lips: what does Labor stand for? How does those ideological foundations translate into practical policies? How is Labor different to Liberal? How is the Labor Party of 2014 different to the Labor Party pf 2013?

Bill, how do you expect to attract new members without an answer to those questions?

Perhaps I’ve misread the meaning of your speech. Perhaps your purpose is to attract new members and then involve them in drafting the new direction of the party. This concerns me, as I know a bit about getting people engaged with a cause. A potential opportunity not enough. It’d be like getting married to someone that you don’t know much about, because you hope that you might be able to change that person into someone you like.

What’s next? How are you going to convince people to engage with the Labor Party?

There’s a meeting tonight in Coorparoo for locals to meeting with you to talk about reforming Labor. Tell us more about that – and don’t tell us to come along and find out! The Labor Party is still a long, long way from that.

The ALP - at the beginning of the road back to government

There’s a basic process that the party needs to go through. Consultation is a starting point, and a behaviour that needs to be enshrined within whatever the evolved Labor Party becomes. But for now, you and your team and your entire membership needs to make some decisions about what you want to be. It’s not enough to be de-factionalised (although you must do that immediately and completely); the new party must stand as one FOR something.

I hear that mission statements and elevator pitches are out of favour these days, but it’s what you need as a starting point. One short paragraph that explains who the Labor Party is and what you believe: not a slogan, not a talking point, not a tagline.

You said that you want a membership-based party with one hundred thousand members. The only way to do that is to create something we all believe in.

What do you believe, Mr Shorten?

CAAANBRA: Leadership

When I started writing on Wednesday morning, I was considering the loss of two independents from the Australian political scene and what it might mean for future independents. Now, I’m contemplating the loss of at least six remarkable Australian parliamentarians, and even more from the front bench.

Alongside the devastating loss is the restoration of hope – just a tiny shard of hope - that perhaps the good people from the Left can keep Tony Abbott out of The Lodge.

Bringing us this drama was a media that ranged from slick and innovative to angry and partisan.

Extraordinary Gentlemen

Australia is poorer as we contemplate a future without the calming influences of two true-blue gentlemen who for many years have steadied the daily drama within Canberra’s galleries of power.

For many, this hung parliament has brought out the worst: from the leadership instability within the ALP to the mean-spirited Liberal decisions around when they would or wouldn’t grant a pair, from the revelations about Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper to the accusations hurled across the floor, from the political convenience of benching former speaker Harry Jenkins to the empty sloganeering of Tony Abbott, we have seen some of the lowest behaviour imaginable.

Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor gave us the very best they have. They were elected as independents in traditional National Party heartland seats, but the actuality of the hung parliament elevated their roles beyond their electorates. To the disgust of some who thought they should behave as National Party stand-ins, both of these men realised the weight of their added responsibility and made their decisions accordingly.

Their retirements are a double blow to the integrity of our political system. Without the requirements of a political party to drive their vote, these remarkable men were free to vote for what they believed was right, instead of what was politically required. Every vote was a conscience vote.

Most memorable during this period of consistent negativity and nastiness is the dignity these two independents carried with them. Rob and Tony are the examples all of our politicians, all of us, should emulate. Regardless of the stresses of their positions, the daily frustrations and the torrent of malice directed their way, these gentlemen remained good humoured, honourable and humble.

It seems unfair that as independents, these two just walk out of public life. If they belonged to a political party, they’d be Elder Statesmen, choosing which Embassy they wanted to run for a few years. Instead, they go home, which I’m sure is what each of them wants.

Go well, gentlemen, with our thanks. You made a difference.


Spudd

In twitter style, each event gets its own hashtag to identify tweets which relate to that event. When Gillard toppled Rudd, it was #Spillard. Following that logic, last night’s leadership challenge should’ve been Spudd. But we all settled for #spill, it trended worldwide on and off for hours during the evening.

We know the story now: A petition was circulated to pressure Ms Gillard into calling a spill. Mr Rudd did not go to China. The spill was called for 7pm. Bill Shorten switched camps and voted for Rudd, as did Penny Wong. In fact, enough people changed sides to get Kevin Rudd over the line and back into the Prime Ministership. The best blow by blow description has been compiled by the ABC from Wednesday's tweets, mainly by ABC reporters.

Unfortunately, Mr Rudd’s victory is defeat for Australia’s first female Prime Minister. After the relentless attacks she’s had to endure, and the outstanding success she has had in reforming Australia’s education structures, introducing a price on carbon, brokering the MRRT, looking after the disabled in our communities and so much more, she deserves better than being dumped by the party that handed her the Prime Ministership.

Tony Abbott continues to describe the Labor Government as “dysfunctional”. It has certainly been entertaining, and I wouldn’t call it stable, but I can’t accept that a government which has achieved as much as this one has is dysfunctional. It’s highly functional, but like so much of the process of governing, it’s ugly. The best summation of the achievements of this Parliament is contained in Rob Oakeshott’s speech from earlier this week.

Prior to the vote on Wednesday evening, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd both confirmed that if they lost the leadership vote, they would resign from politics, ending the question of leadership. Julia Gillard did lose, and has confirmed that she will not recontest the safe Labor seat of Lalor, in Victoria. Sadly, some of Ms Gillard’s highest profile supporters have taken this a step further. Former Ministers Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett and Stephen Smith will not be recontesting their seats either.

Former Treasurer and ex-Deputy PM Wayne Swan will move to the back benches, where he’ll be surrounded by his former colleagues in the Ministry including Joe Ludwig, Steven Conroy and Greg Combet.

And still, Julia Gillard is the only woman to have resigned from Parliament this week.


Hate Media

I am sad, and more than a little scared at the likelihood of a future Australia under Tony Abbott, but I am appalled at the level of hatred in some tweets that have come from the right today. Not all conservative voters behave like undignified rabble on twitter, but some do – and some of them should know better.

Chris Kenny, a former Liberal political operative and journalist, now commentator for Sky News, tweeted

Get your dig in there Chris. It doesn’t need to be accurate or honest, just snarky and calibrated to benefit the Liberal Party, right?

Of course, you know that neither Oakeshott nor Windsor is leaving politics out of any desire to duck what Mr Kenny believes would be unacceptable results. People who can’t handle rejection well don’t go into politics. The truth is that Mr Windsor needs to manage some health issues and Mr Oakeshott is done. He’s been 17 years in politics and he’s done. Has Mr Kenny ever worked in the same job for seventeen years?

Sky News Australia has become Fox News Australia in all but name, and as the drama amplified yesterday, the conservative bias became more and more obvious. Paul Murray, whose show airs nightly at 9pm is setting himself up as Australia’s answer to Rush Limbaugh. He is an angry, bitter man filled with and fuelled by hatred for the Labor Party in general and Ms Gillard in particularly. His guests are almost exclusively from the right and further right, turning what was once a reasonably balanced news-chat show into the proverbial echo-chamber of simpering agreement.

Regular guests include former Howard Ministers Gary Hargraves and Peter Reith, Sky News colleague Janine Perrett, serial Gillard insulter Grace Collier, broadcaster Derryn Hinch, conservative (News Limited) columnist Janet Albrechtsen and her partner, Liberal Party has-been Michael Kroger, 2UE talkback colleagues Jason Morrison and John Stanley, economics writer for (News Limited’s) The Australian Adam Creighton, former Liberal Party staffer Chris Kenny, Andrew Stoner, leader of the NSW Nationals…and a light smattering of progressive guests like Peter Bentley of the McKell Institute and former Rudd staffer (and now MamaMia Mama) Jamila Rizvi, and current Labor MP Ed Husic plus some generalist commentators like PR pundit Prue MacSween and editor of the Australian Womens Weekly, Helen McCabe.

Sky News Australia should take notice of some of the comments that were floating on Twitter last night about Mr Murray’s performance. I don’t know if his preference for conservative-leaning guests is the result of an instruction from his employers, or is a personal choice to support the Opposition, but it’s obvious, and it’s far too close a Fox News clone for my liking.

CAAANBRA: Cut and Colour

Some women rave about that hour or two or three that they spend in the salon being coloured, cut and tjuzjed. It’s special girl time, when a woman and her stylist can gossip about Taylor Swift’s army of exes, discuss the latest in nail art and hem lengths and transform a normal woman into someone with potential. Alternately, the client can close her eyes and pretend to be anywhere else while her trusted hair artiste wields chemicals, scissors and hot air blowers in a blur of smelly activity. In any case, a visit to the hairdressers is rarely an intellectual experience.


It looked as though my appointment at the budget salon was going the same way, until my stylist asked what I was reading on my iPad. It was twitter – my post-work preference for catching up with the political to-ings and fro-ings of the day.

I’ll admit, I was not shocked to learn that 20 year old Natasha isn’t interested in politics. She’s twenty, and hasn’t voted before. I was prepared to abandon the conversation in favour of some blessed silence (not that silence is ever popular in the hair salon on Thursday night) but no. Natasha had to tell me that she hates Julia. Hates her. Hates her with the heat of a thousand suns.

“Why”, I asked, genuinely interested to learn why a woman who is not interested in politics has such a vehement hatred for our first female prime minister.

She shrugged her shoulders and answered “Dunno.”

I followed up: “Has the PM done anything specific, passed any legislation that you’re not happy about?” I was giving her the chance to raise the Carbon Tax, or talk about Kevin Rudd’s exit from Prime Ministership, or Ms Gillard’s refusal to support marriage equality or her position on asylum seekers.

“Dunno”, she shrugged again, pointy-ended comb flying. “Dunno what she’s done. I just hate her.” Natasha made a disgusted, puckerface shudder that took over her whole body.

My inner Bryant Gumbel wanted to ask “But Whyyy?” when my true lefty self took over.

“Oh. Would you like me to tell you about some of the stuff she’s done?”

“Oh Gawd, No! I’m not interested in politics! Really I don’t care!”

The last thing in the world that I wanted to do was provoke the young woman who was cutting and colouring my hair…and who, in just a few minutes would be pouring heated wax onto my eyebrow area. I should’ve stopped.

I kept talking. “Is it the Carbon Tax?” I asked, moderating my tone to sound effortlessly neutral.

“I don’t like tax. Why would I want to pay more of it?” she asked hotly.

This one deserved an explanation, so I explained.

“Oh.” She paused. Even the frantic hair-related activity stopped for a moment….and then they started again. “Well, I still hate her. She’s vi-i-i-ile…but she’s better than the budgies bloke. He’s scary! I guess if you think Julia’s okay, you probably hate Abbott!”

I was impressed. I did not for a moment think that she would know the name of the Leader of the Opposition. I hmmmed an agreement.

Nodding is dangerous when you’re seated in at a stylist’s station. How every hair salon on earth hasn’t been classified as a major Hazard Facility is a mystery to me. President Obama could shut down Guantanamo Bay and replace it with a chain of salons and probably achieve the same result. There’s the too-hot/too-cold water torture, the unqualified agony of sitting for hours in an uncomfortable chair with nothing to look at except a poorly lit reflection of your own face. There's a horrifying selection of blades, lethal chemicals designed to change the molecular structure of human tissue, lots of electricity, hot wax, tweezers…

In any case, when your stylist is working on your hair, don’t nod, even if its to signal your agreement regarding the scariness of Tony Abbott. But that was just about the only time he was mentioned. Natasha thinks he’s nowhere near as good as the good Aussie bloke that Kevin was. Is.

“Fair shake of the sauce bottle, Sal! Kevin’s a great Aussie bloke. There aren’t any other great Aussie blokes in politics. We need more like Kevin. He’s awesome! I mean, who else would say ‘fair shake of the sauce bottle’?”

Aaahhhh, does Natasha’s hatred of Julia stem from the simple truth that here, in the heart of Griffith, Julia isn’t Kevin?

Natasha doesn’t think she’ll vote this time. She can’t bring herself to vote for her local member – even if it is Kevin – because that’s a vote for Julia. She won’t vote for the Liberal candidate, because that’s a vote for Budgie Boy. She wouldn’t vote for anyone else either: “Why vote for anyone else? Y’gotta be on the winner, doncha!”

I don’t know how much this little pocket of eastern Brisbane suburbia resembles the western suburbs of Sydney, but I suspect it’s more than many want to admit.

Meanwhile, one of Labor’s big problems is how to win the hearts and minds of people who hate Julia Gillard but have no clue as to why. I doubt Natasha is the only one. How do you argue against pure, illogical emotion?

I pondered this, though not hard. I was distracted by the off cuts of hair, clinging to my neck with maliciously itchy intent.

Drowning, Not Waving

Today’s Newspoll results are a bit of a non-event, unless you happen to be in Queensland, where they are worthy of more than a second glance. Nationally, the changes are minimal: the Coalition is still leading Labor by 12 percentage points on a two-party-preferred basis, but when you get to the Queensland figures, the LNP lead is 30 percentage points, a margin devastating enough to be likened to Whyalla and the dawn of the Carbon Tax. Even Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, along with Treasurer Wayne Swan and Trade Minister Dr Craig Emerson’s seats in Queensland, would be in danger. Labor could be ShamWowed right off the electoral map in Queensland, leaving their paltry seven seats in Queensland’s state parliament looking like a strong result.

You have to wonder if a two-party preferred measure is relevant any more.

Worse than that, some are wondering if the ALP is relevant any more.

It’s a ridiculous position. Of course the ALP is relevant. Even on primary votes, 32% of people indicated that they would vote Labor. That’s one in three people, but one in three doesn’t win an election. If the ALP is going to hold onto power – and that looks less and less likely – they need more than 50% of the 2PP number. Nationally, the ALP needs to find a significant slab of voters who will support them and their allies...if they still have any.

So where are they: Paul Keating’s True Believers must be around somewhere. Are they the one in three who are sticking by this wounded Labor Government against all odds?

I’m quite sure that the ALP doesn’t actually know where to look for the voters it has lost along the way…so I’m going to point them in the right direction. Look to the left, Labor. We’re all over here!

Take a look at the Political Compass, which made the following observations just two years ago:

Conservative parties in virtually all western democracies have shifted to the right economically, and the Australian Liberal Party is no exception. However, in most countries a new generation of conservative leaders display eagerness to adopt more socially liberal policies in tandem with full-throttle free market (ie right wing) economics. In the case of Tony Abbott's Liberals, however, the party has not only moved right of the earlier Turnbull leadership years, but it has also shifted to a more authoritarian position on the social scale. This is a move that will no doubt appeal to the otherwise mostly homeless former supporters of One Nation.

Labor reflects this drift, now occupying a space to the right of the 1980s Liberals. The debate between the two main parties, however heated, is within narrowing parameters. The two parties are now closer together than at any other time. The clash of economic vision of earlier campaigns is absent. It's no longer about whether the prevailing neoliberal orthodoxy is actually desirable, but merely a question of which party can manage it best.

By contrast, the Greens, once pretty much a single issue party, have emerged with a comprehensive social democratic manifesto, more in tune with an earlier Labor Party, and significantly more socially liberal than either of the others.

Take another look at the compass above. Should the ALP be fighting for the small stripe of ideological real estate between where they are now, and the conservative crush of Nationals, LNP and Liberals, or should it - to quote an astonishing television documentary series - Go Back to Where It Came From? As hated as she is by the political right, Julia Gillard is dragging the ALP even further to the right, but there's no-one there to welcome her. We're all behind her, in that big slab of open space to the left of Labor.

The results in Queensland are more pronounced, and the reasons are varied. For many Labor and undecided voters, the issue of Julia Gillard’s ascendancy still burns. These voters will not support a government lead by the woman who knifed “our Kev” in the back, and then lied about the dreaded Carbon Tax. Another reason for Labor still being hated in Queensland is Queensland’s reliance on mining and the perception that the combination of the Carbon Tax and the MRRT will damage the mining industry.

And then there’s the Campbell Newman Effect: despite 99 days in office, in which promises have been broken and every Queenslander has been squeezed somehow, Newman is seen as a winner. That’s not a hard look to maintain in comparison to Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Unfortunately for Queensland Labor, Ms Palaszczuk was the most qualified and most willing to lead a small and lacklustre group of MPs. She makes Mr Newman look good. State Labor must regroup and bring in a leader from outside the parliament.

In 21st Century politics, conventional wisdom suggests that elections are won in the western suburbs of Sydney, and the south-east corner of Queensland. Both look lost to the more conservative of the conservative options.

The Australian Labor Party would do well to stop trying to take ground away from the Coalition, and turn around. There’s an enormous streak of centre ground where Labor Voters – the lapsed True Believers, the Greenies with moderate economic views and the genuine Centre-Lefties are waiting with votes and bags of money for their party to return to them.




.

What's Wrong with Labor?

Not far beyond the half-way mark in the Gillard government, the consensus seems to be that the parliament has been nothing short of chaotic: scandal upon scandal, lie after lie. Pundits agree that this government is magnificently dysfunctional, when in fact, the Gillard Government has been passing legislation with quiet regularity. And yet, they have all but lost the election that won't be held for another twelve months or so.

The possibility that the ALP could win the next federal election lacks credibility in most quarters, and the newest national sport is hypothesising on what killed the Labor Party, and for those from the left, how to fix it.

Conservative commentator Chris Kenny proposed via on Twitter on May 15 that the ALP's woes are the result of being poll-driven.

Labor's whole problem is it is poll driven - even the claim it is not poll driven is poll driven #auspol

Bill Kelty, one of the godfathers of the Left, suggested to this week's ACTU Congress that they should look within: "...when he advised delegates not to blame the media or opposition because they are just doing their job, the meaning for all of us is that we control our own destiny with our own behaviour." There's more than a grain of truth there, but it's an insider's truth, not the whole truth.

Brisbane commentator Madonna King had a look at the situation in yesterday's Courier Mail. "Voters aren't taken with Tony Abbott, and they've now turned off listening to Julia Gillard." Ms King is correct, as far as she goes, but there's so much more to it, and Bill Kelty nudges it when he talks about making policy simpler for the electorate to understand and embrace.

For Labor, there is no easy answer, no single cause, and no silver bullet. An extraordinary convergence of events and personalities has conspired to...er...screw the Australian Labor Party with its pants on.

Circumstantial shots were fired by the GFC, ensuring that the Labor Governments of Rudd and Gillard would face economic challenges not predicted in the promise-filled days of campaigning. After years of Howard/Costello Budget Bonbons and Surpluses, the electorate was confused by talk of recession combined with stimulus handouts. It was seen as wasting our precious surplus when we needed it most.

History has shown that Wayne Swan's economic leadership through the darkest days of the GFC was masterful. Had he taken us in a different direction, Australia could well be fighting Greece and Spain for the title of Loser of the Week. But as the ALP has learned, it's almost impossible to get that triumphant economic message out.

Factors 2 and 3 in the ALP Real Life Disaster Movie are the Coalition and Media. Bill Kelty cautioned unionists not to blame the Opposition or the media, but it's foolish to discount their impact. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is a skilled No-man, with a team of committed No-People behind him. So relentless, so fascinating is the Coalition's ability to undermine every Labor achievement, the media has no choice but to cover it, particularly when our articulate government ministers seek out a microphone and react every time the Noalition says anything. This is Labor allowing the Opposition to control the national agenda.

Who are the big media names in this country, the commentators with a personal following? Alan Jones, Ray Hadley, Andrew Bolt, Piers Ackerman, each of them aggressively conservative, with anti-refugee, anti-climate change, anti-gay rights agendas. There is no left-leaning equivalent with anything approaching the reach of these men.

Add to that Today Tonight and A Current Affair. They may not be overtly political, yet their lowest common denominator stories about undeserving asylum seekers living the good life, dodgy public officials and the appalling cost of everything, feed into the anti-government sentiment. Even as I write this blog, Today Tonight is promoting noted xenophobe Pauline Hanson's guest-starring role this week as another Caucasian making you mad at people who look like me.

Chris Kenny, journalist and Liberal party operative, suggests that the ALP downfall is because it is poll-driven. The assassination of Kevin Rudd's Prime Ministership had an element of poll-reliance to it, yet those poll numbers that Rudd had in mid-2010 would be a dream come true for Labor now. Why hasn't the ALP benched Julia Gillard? Perhaps they aren't as poll-driven now as they were two years ago.

What else do the polls tell us? Concern about the economy trumps all other policy areas, despite Australia's world-beating financial status. The latest Morgan poll on issues doesn't seem to determine ALP focus, but it does reflect the agendas of the right wing shock jocks.

Does all of this suggest that the Coalition is simply better at getting their message out via traditional means than Labor is?

The final, most disastrous element in the ALP's decline is the simple truth that the Party and it's traditional base are separated by an ever-widening ideological gulf. Bob Hawke can sing all the union anthems in the world, but it doesn't mean anything to the unionists who see "their" ALP slow-dancing with policies so far to the right that even Malcolm Fraser has to swivel his head to see them.

So there they sit, disgruntled unionists, disillusioned greenies, disenfranchised lefties of all kinds, wondering where their party went. Polls, media, an obstructionist opposition, a hung parliament, the GFC, climate change, asylum seekers and the rise in popularity of the raspberry macaron notwithstanding, the base is still there, where they've been all along. The ALP chased the centre, and in doing so, moved so far to the right that it's unrecognisable to grass roots lefties like me.

How does Labor fix the problem? Start by turning 180 degrees to the left and peering into the distance. There's literally hundreds of thousands of Aussies over here who'd like to have a chat.

.

What is $1.5b Actually Worth?

As promised, the ALP Government has delivered a juicy morsel of Surplus, with grand proclamations about the dark years of Deficit being over. Huzzah! We're in the Money, sharing the benefits of the (Big) Boom, while barely blinking at the armada of cutbacks that go to enable this surplus of goodness.

A quick count shows about 40 headline programmes scrapped entirely, cut, or delayed. 

This is a confusing budget, in that the ALP has delivered, against all odds, the thing the voters and the Opposition most wanted, while at the same time, cutting the heart and soul from everything not nailed down. 

 From $5.4b in cuts to defence spending, to a paltry million saved by not building a new weather station at Jervis Bay, the ALP Government has been ruthless in their determination to produce the surplus they believe we all want. In this instance, we have to trust that the Government made the right choices, and only cut the least essential programmes when decided what would be cut and what would survive.

Before celebrating our glorious return to Surplusity, remember that with programmes scrapped comes jobs lost, projects spanning years of peoples' lives shelved, and the hopes of programme directors obliterated. There is an inevitable cost. It’s probably nowhere near twelve thousand jobs to go, as was reported in the Canberra Times last night, yet there will be pain. Bank on it.

But we have our blessed surplus. As Michael Pascoe wrote in today’s Farifax press, “Welcome tp the Temple of Surplus Adoration”. Of course, while the ratings agencies are delighted with the budget, and  low and middle income families are pretty happy, business is less than thrilled, well-off families are wondering where their entitlements are, and those of us without children pretend the whole thing isn’t happening, just as we do after every Budget. Mr Swan should know by now that you can’t please all of the people, and in the case of the ALP in 2012, it’s hard to please anyone.

But we have our surplus, that majestic $1.5 billion dollars. A mere trifle, you may think, but no. It’s $65.50 for every Australian man, woman and child. There’s no end to the things each of us could have done with that $65.50:

·         Download about 30 songs from iTunes

·         4 x 250g packets of my favourite chocolates

·         Movie tickets for a family of 4 (but bring your own popcorn)

·         A 50 minute massage

·         One decent (but not flash) shoe

·         A tank of petrol for a small car

·         About 10 boring minutes on a standard poker machine

·         Dinner for 2 at Sizzler

Okay, you’re right. $65.50 isn’t as exciting as I’d hoped.

It’s probably best that the government did hold onto everyone’s $65.50. They could do some real good with $1,500,000,000. Here’s what  $1.5b could’ve bought:

·         Thirty new high schools

·         6000 average family homes  

·         A medium sized hospital

·         8000+ kilometres of world class multi-lane highways

·         11.5 Joint Strike Fighter military aircraft

·         A year of employment for over  15,000 teachers, doctors, nurses, scientists, agronomists…

·         Nine or Ten Federal Elections

·         Half a Clem7 Tunnel

Given our need for schools, homes, hospitals, scientists, roads and infrastructure, why not make the cuts anyway, and spend the surplus money on doing what governments are supposed to do: provide services for the people.

The answer is less about economics, and more about politics. The electorate demanded a return to surplus, and the government provided it. If all goes according to plan, we will have $1.5b in the bank, for a rainy day. That’s good too.

Trust Deficit

As Prime Minister Gillard speaks to the media about her conversations with Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper, the first questions are inevitably about the possibility of an early election.


I've seen tweets over the past days and weeks, suggesting that our current federal politicians - the whole lot of them - is the worst group of Australian politicians ever. I can't disagree with the sentiment. No wonder there's so much blah in the electorate. It's almost impossible to find anything to relate to, much less admire, in the representatives we elected.


I can see that this government has produced some outstanding results, but the message isn't cutting through. They've also delivered some solid gold, fur-lined ocean-going political failures, and they continue to dominate the news cycle.

An opportunistic minority government with unstable leadership, an obstructionist opposition, an ever-increasing pod of independents and a largely tolerant news media have encouraged the voters to disengage. We're in a perpetual motion negativity machine, and we can't break free. 


Conventional wisdom (and Rupert Murdoch) suggest its time to eject the warp core and call the election that isn't due for more than a year.


I'm a fan of at least listening to the unconventional wisdom...or perhaps in this instance, I'm just more cynical than most. My dissatisfaction with Canberra is not partisan. I'm disappointed by both sides, so going to an early election, which the Coalition would win, would be replacing one set of underachievers for another. 


I want some of that hopey-changey stuff that President Obama promised back in 2008. Why is there so little of that in Canberra in 2012? 


Instead, we've had months of Craig Thomson' credit cards, years of JuLiar, and a week or so of Peter Slipper's bizarre behaviour with CabCharge dockets and young male staffers although it feels like longer.Speculation about the ALP Leadership just won't stop, and Kevin Rudd's name keeps bobbing to the top like ice in XXXX; it's better than warm beer, but only as a last resort.


Although the ALP has been in power less than five years, there's a richly curdled legacy of School Halls, Pink Batts, the Carbon Tax "lie", the Malaysian Deal, the ADFA Skype scandal, the unReformed Pokies laws and the legendary Faceless Men.

And yet, if we did go to an early election, what would we get? A Prime Minister (Abbott) whose been a brilliant attack dog for the Liberal party, but is as about as unpopular as the Prime Minister. The Coalition's Shadow Finance team is a running joke under the heading Team Acalculia*,  and there's Malcolm Turnbull, who probably doesn't believe his own party's platform on the NBN. There's Theresa Gambaro and her view than new Australians lack courtesy and deodorant, and Scott Morrison, who had issues with us footing the bill to fly children across the country to attend the funeral of their parents. The Coalition's greatest strength is Julie Bishop's death-stare.


The unknown quantity is the core of Independents, mainly former Coalition members: marathon speech maker Oakeshott, farmer Windsor, anti-Pokies Campaigner and former spook Andrew Wilkie, stood-down Speaker Slipper, Bob Katter and his Magic Hat (and his new Katter's Australia Party that lives there) and now Craig Thomson. Unpredictable is an understatement.


What disturbs me most about the current situation is it's fragility. The Government has been functional, but every new ripple is a threat, and every deal to reduce the risk has consequences. 


Prime Minister Gillard is correct to say that Australia is a strong country, with a strong economy, but our government is constantly at risk and under pressure, and that weakens us all.


Twenty four hours ago, I would have protested the call for an early election. The Government is part-way through a legislative agenda. Despite this, today's bombshell has shaken my position and my trust. 

Labor - Whatever That Means

It’s 2012, and I’m struggling to define the ALP, or even recognise it. For over a century, the ALP has been Australia’s party of the left; an inclusive party of workers, for workers. I’m not sure it can claim that description any more, although it is still marginally to the left of the Nationals and the Liberal Party.



Just two days ago, Queensland voted to change governments, from the ALP to the LNP, in a victory from which Labor may not emerge. Vanquished Premier Anna Bligh has removed herself from the game, forcing a by-election in South Brisbane. Defeated ALP members are thick on the ground, yet they aren’t volunteering to lead the handful or so Labor members that survived Saturday’s massacre. Both Andrew Fraser – expected to be the next leader – and Grace Grace have confirmed that they won’t contest.


It’s not just Queensland. The entire eastern seaboard has rejected their long-serving ALP Governments and replaced them with Liberal/National Party Coalition Governments, or in the case of Queensland, the LNP.


On the federal level, Julia Gillard just scraped back into power with the assistance of the independents and Greens. She is phenomenally unpopular, and as was the case with Anna Bligh in 2009, snuck back into power in part due to an Opposition that was perceived to be worse than the Labor alternative. The Federal term has just passed the half-way mark. If Labor is to recover, it must start now.

Labor was never going to win these elections, and one has to assume that under Julia Gillard, the Federal ALP will fall too. The inevitable Labor soul-searching at all levels will be deep and it will hurt.

Can the ALP redefine itself, rebuild, and sell its new message before the next Federal Election is due in the second half of 2013?

The question was posed on Twitter yesterday:

“What did we (the ALP) do wrong?”

Contrary to Tony Abbott’s beliefs, the Queensland election was not a referendum on the Carbon Tax or the Mining Resources Rent Tax. Exit polling indicates that this election was fought on state issues, with Cost of Living topping the list.

The first of the two big issues for the Bligh Government was the attention span. The LNP campaign theme ignored all of the issues and emphasised the length of time Labor had been in power. Anything over ten years, and the electorate will start thinking about change. The Bligh Government should have been defeated in 2009, and would’ve been, had the Opposition been able to mount a coherent campaign with a charismatic leader.

The second issue is the Bligh Government’s perceived mismanagement of the Queensland Economy. A great deal was made of Queensland’s downgraded credit rating, and Premier Bligh’s decision to sell state assets, coupled with impressive increases in electricity charges and car registration costs. Even though it was back in 2009 that the asset sales were announced, that decision is still a talking point. Queenslanders have never forgiven Ms Bligh for that.

I’m one of the few who would back Ms Bligh’s decision to sell those assets. Why? Because the Queensland economy is reliant on mining and tourism, and both took an enormous hit during the depth of the GFC. Would anyone care to guess where our credit rating would be had we not realised the additional funds from those asset sales?

There were other issues, of course: the ongoing issues with the Queensland Health payroll system made the department – and hence the government - look incompetent. Jayent Patel’s trial during this parliamentary term just added to the perception of a key department in crisis. The Gordon Nuttal trial and sentencing was another blow.

Finally, there was the intense negative campaigning from the ALP, direct at Campbell Newman and his family’s financial affairs. There were, and still are, some questions I’d like to see answered; those questions were both relevant and timely. But they were also personal, they were aggressive, they were negative, and Australians don’t like that style of campaigning.

It doesn’t matter how much time the ALP organisation spends contemplating its belly button, knowing what went wrong with the Queensland elections won’t help it win the Federal Election next year.


The first hurdle in rebuilding Labor is for Labor – by which I mean it’s members – to decide what it wants to be. Are the values that Labor built on a century ago still relevant? Should Labor reconnect with it’s Union roots, or is there a new vision? Given how far the ALP of the 21st Century is from its unionist / socialist roots, should it try to regain it’s base, or try to build a new one?


There’s an impressive gap between the ALP and the Greens, the two parties which are perceived as being left in today’s environment. Check out the Political Compass. In 2010, the ALP was considered to be Centre-Right, and the greens slightly left of centre. There’s an opportunity there, pretty close to the centre of the political map, and I suspect that if we were to examine the values of “old Labor”, it would fill that gap quite well.

The three major parties are now crowded together with little to differentiate between them. It’s worth considering that if the major parties could demonstrate genuine ideological and policy differences, they would be better placed to campaign without the personal mudslinging and negativity.

But for now, there’s no party to represent those of us who favour a conservative approach to economics, but a more progressive social agenda. The balance of power is tilting ever so slightly away from the Capitalist/Christian paradigm that defined the 20th century. Role models from Ghandi to the Dalai Lama to Nelson Mandela would be unrepresented in Canberra. That must be a consideration for anyone developing an ideology in this, the”Asian Century”.

If there is one ray of hope to come from Labor’s ensanguined result in Queensland, it’s this: their destiny is within their control. They must take this opportunity to become meaningful again.

Whatever that means.

The answers only take us half way.

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Part 2

Holy Flaming Shitballs, Queensland! The LNP has won the most astounding victory most of us can remember. In a house of 89 seats, it's looking like 76 seats will belong to the LNP, with a couple more from their conservative cousins in Katter's Australian Party. It doesn't get much better than this-just ask Clive Palmer, the LNP Godfather. He couldn't contain his excitement, referring to the humbled ALP as "gutless wonders".

It can't be all plain sailing for the LNP though. They have some mountains to climb, and with a mandate like this, the expectation will be enormous. That said, their emotional journey will be vastly different to that of the ALP. It's more akin to the situation that Kevin Rudd's team faced in 2007. We all know what happened there.

Since claiming victory last night, Campbell Newman has repeatedly pledged that his government will act with humility, grace and dignity. Sixteen or so hours in, he has kept that pledge, Clive Palmer notwithstanding.

Newman is wasting no time; he's already held a meeting with his key people, or at least those who were in Brisbane this morning. With the long months of campaigning, and polling solidly in the LNP's favour, they would have had a transition team in place, handling all those details.

Now, take a breath, close your eyes, and imagine the biggest success you can imagine. You and all the people you work with and all your friends get to walk out of your offices and into the executive offices. It's yours. 

It's a crazy, heady thing. Those people who to work up there are vacating their offices in grief and shock. The ground is moving under them. Human decency demands that the LNP allow a little space for the old team to packing their bits and bobs into archive boxes and leave the building. Time is impossible when you're pulsing with triumph, adrenaline, and a mandate for drastic change.

The next few weeks will be a series of balancing acts for the new team: the LNP is forming its first government. Who gets the key ministries? (Mr Newman is announcing a few of those as I write this.) Almost 80 people will form the parliamentary team, along with their assistants, staff, egos and agendas. Newman's military experience should come in handy; those guys know how to form functional teams.

And what about the Public Service? Some will go with the Government Restructure - John Bradley, Director General of the Premiers Department, has already been punted. I can't imagine Greg Withers, Assistant Director General of the Department of Climate Change, and Anna Bligh's husband, would be likely to hold onto his job.

And what are the priorities? What can wait? Now versus later. Regional versus state. Liberal versus Nationals. Surety versus doubt. Confidence versus inexperience. Just working out where to start is an overwhelming task. The Government may be new, but the state isn't. Countless projects are underway, and some of those aren't on the LNP's To-Do Lst. Plough on, or abandon projects half-finished?

And what should the new government do about the status of the outgoing team, given the likelihood that the ALP won't win enough seats to be a legitimate Opposition under the Queensland Constitution? Frankly, the idea of such an incredible majority, no Opposition and no Upper House doesn't seem to be in the spirit of democracy. 

As an Organisational Change specialist, I can only hope that the new LNP Government gets this right. As we saw last night, Queenslanders can be unforgiving.

But firstly and above all else, on behalf of the newbie-MPs, someone needs to find the loos.


Update: Outgoing Queensland Premier has announced her resignation from public life, forcing a by-election in her seat of South Brisbane. Campbell Newman has confirmed that the LNP will field a candidate in this by-election.

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Part 1

To the surprise of many in and around the Queensland ALP, the sun came up this morning. It must have felt like the end of the world last night as seat after seat fell to the LNP. Commentators recalculated and made new predictions and recalculated again, lowering the number of seats the ALP would retain, until the mind-numbing truth: they wouldn't crack double figures.

I hate to be the one to break it to them: for the few who scraped by and retained their seats, the worst is yet to come. 

The Survivors

Close your eyes. Imagine your office or your school or your newsroom.Think for a moment about the people you work with. Good people, mostly; friendly, competent, familiar. You share most of the same values and priorities and sense of purpose. You've worked with these people for years.
Uhoh! Instant restructure and a major round of redundancies. When you go into your workplace tomorrow, more than 40 of the fifty-odd people in your team are gone. Think of the four people you work most closely with. Whoosh. You're the only one left. The others are literally redundant, as of last night.

Some of your former colleagues saw it coming, but many didn't. You knew something was up, but you're staggered by the magnitude of the devastation.

There's worse to come. You were in the department that made all the decisions. You were the where the action is. Presto-changeo! You and your remaining colleagues have been moved to the other side of the building, to the smaller offices. Your job description has changed. You're not making the decisions any more.

And now, the most galling of all: your former colleagues are being replaced by a group of mainly new recruits. They don't know the business. They don't even know where the toilets are...but they know better than you, and they'll be making the decisions. They'll be sitting in the good seats where you used to sit, looking at you, blaming you for everything that's gone wrong, even when it's not your fault. They'll criticise the achievements you're most proud of, and you'll sit by as they soak up the praise for the work your team started but was unable to finish.

Did I mention that you might be paid less than you were, and have to learn new areas of expertise...all while worrying about your former colleagues and trying to ignore the nagging survivor guilt, and that inappropriate little voice that wishes you'd been booted out like 85% of your mates.

Welcome to ALP Survivor Hell

The Vanquished

There are surely a lot of hangovers around Queensland this morning. A few well-known ALP MPs - now former MPs - have logged into Twitter to thank their supporters and remove the "MP" from their Twitter handles. 

Fifty-one people have been judged, and for a whole range of reasons, more than 40 have been replaced. 

Some, like Paul Lucas, knew this day was coming, and took the opportunity to retire. Others thought they'd survive this triennial performance review. Sadly, some excellent members of parliament were just in the wrong seat at the wrong time and were discarded, such was the appetite for change.

Some have plans, many don't. 

But today they sleep, start to scrub away the emotional grime left after a long campaign, and be with their families and friends. 

Yesterday was a catastrophic loss for the ALP in Queensland. Survivors and victims of the Blue Tide will grieve, mourn and find people to blame.

Denial...Anger...Bargaining...Depression...Acceptance. Coming soon to an ALP Branch Near You.

In case no-one else remembers, I'd like to thank these people for their service.



Thoughts on the LNP later.

Maybe On Sunday

The Queensland Election Campaigns roll on today with significant events scheduled for both major parties, but to what end? I’m sure there are plenty of Queenslanders who are still bumping around in the Undecideds column, but are today’s events going to sway many minds? I doubt it.

Let’s start with the ALP Campaign Launch. It’s a large expensive photo-op for members of the ALP to get photos with VIPs. Prime Minister Gillard, Treasurer Swan, Member for Griffith Kevin Rudd and former Premier Beattie are there, with their best we’re-all-friends-now grins that fool no-one. But this is Queensland, and Rudd still means something here. Media will be watching for cracks in the chummy veneer, suggestions of insider-versus-outsider tension, and making obvious conclusions. It’s a rich feast on offer.

I’m watching the ALP Love-in as I write this. While I’m waiting, let’s talk LNP and Campbell Newman; I'll head back to the ALP when someone starts talking.

Meanwhile, Campbell Newman has called a press conference of his own. His aim is twofold: he wants to draw attention away from the ALP's Big Day, and also end the speculation about his finances and those of his family. He announced that he and his wife will be divest themselves of their financial interests. Scanning Twitter this morning was not unlike the heady hours of #QantasLuxury: the mood is mocking, a festival of rhetorical questions and sarcastic dismissal.

·         Newman is going to divest himself of assets he hasn’t admitted he owns?

·         Why were Newman’s investments okay when he was Lord Mayor, but not as Premier?

·         Would he be talking about his finances if not for the bad polling?

·         What about his alleged misconduct as Lord Mayor?

I’m also hearing that Newman has promised to divest himself of financial interests within 90 days of being elected but the Cabinet regulations requires that divestment take place in no more than 30 days. It does - we checked.

And here's Anna Bligh, wearing one of Julia Gillard's white jackets. 

Anna does the intro, talks a bit about Ashgrove and moves straight onto the LNP taking Queensland back to the bad old days of the 20^th Century. But hey, Anna’s on message, questioning why Campbell Newman was allowed to carry on as Lord Mayor with all of these conflicting financial interests. She also notes that Newman won’t answer questions about alternate leadership. “The lucky-dip of Leadership”? Great line – alliteration and rhyme. I would’ve hammered that a bit harder.

And its onto Queensland’s green credentials – and back to Newman again who is decidedly un-green, a quick fly-by near Law & Order (Ram Raids? Really?) onto the Economy. Good numbers! I’m impressed – and it’s an employment promise so close to being kept. Queensland has the best performing economy in the country that most successfully navigated the GFC.

Education as transformation, smaller class sizes, 42000 places in Kindy, and shifting Year 7 into High School.

And to the future: Australia’s first ever education trust fund, funded by mining revenue. Mines to Minds. From the Asia-Pacific Century to an Asia-Pacific Exchange Student programme. The apprenticeships rebate to continue. Skilling up Queenslanders for innovation and productivity. More scientists and researchers per capita than OECD average – big on developing this as the economy of tomorrow.

Growth follows innovation. Prosperity follows growth.

Health. The Achilles’ Heel of Queensland’s Labor Government. Anna will be employing 3000 more health professionals over the next 3 years. No mention of the master plan to split the department into a health services department and a back office support department.

Anna also promises a freeze on rego costs for next 3 years –for all vehicles. Take that Campbell Newman, who is offering something similar, but which excludes utes and bikes.

The summing up is more triumphant than resolute: but hang on – you haven’t won and probably won’t. There’s an incoming tide of prosperity – not a line I would have on a day saturated with images of the Japanese Tsunami.

And now both sides have said their pieces for today. Are we any further along the road?

Maybe.

The ALP had a solid launch, but Newman failed to address questions around Civil Partnerships and LNP Leadership. Nothing has really changed.