Before sitting down to write tonight, 612 ABC Brisbane hosted the one and only debate between the five candidates for the position of Brisbane’s Lord Mayor. Rightly or wrongly, I’ve been criticised for, well, criticising the calibre of the five candidates.
Two of the candidates, mysterious independent Chris Carson*, and Sex Party candidate Rory Killen, have taken the unusual step of phoning in sick. I'm not sure of the exact reasons for their decisions to be no-shows; in any case, it's not acceptable for a serious candidate to refuse a surprisingly rare invitation to talk to the voters. Perhaps they weren't serious after all...or perhaps the dog ate their homework.
That leaves three: the incumbent, Lord Mayor Graham Quirk, the ALP Contender Ray Smith, and the wild card, Democrat-turned-Green Andrew Bartlett.
But before I can make my voting decision, I have a question: what does a Lord Mayor actually do? The position is worth a salary of almost $220,000, plus a $70,000 car and allowances. In the corporate world, that's not a lot. It's a senior manager, but probably not executive level.
That's right: We have to vote for one of these gentlemen running for Lord Mayor. The winner is going to enjoy a $300K+ package, and I'm not sure what he does. That makes it impossible to compare candidates against a job description.
Our current Lord Mayor, Graham Quirk has been in local government for 26 years. That’s a long stretch to work for any single employer these days, yet to quote Ms Shania Twain, "That Don't Impress Me Much."
Does he have the fresh ideas for Brisbane? Or is he so institutionalised that he's lost touch with the city? Having worked for so long in the shadow of Campbell Newman, is “Quirkie” riding on his ex-boss’s coat-tails, or is he tainted by association? Remember, he was never elected Lord Mayor, just assumed the position when Premier Newman resigned a year or so ago to enter state politics. I'm sure Graham Quirk knows what a Lord Mayor does, but he hasn't told me.
The ALP's Ray Smith is a self-made business success story with an enviable reputation across many areas, but no experience as a councillor. Labor is so unpopular in Queensland right now, it’s hard to imagine him winning a chook raffle. His business experience would certainly be an asset to Council, and through his business, his fundraising and his leisure activities, has contacts all over Brisbane and beyond. Can he do whatever it is that a Lord Mayor does? Probably; he seems capable. (Vague, isn't it?)
And then there’s Andrew Bartlett, probably the most credible candidate of the three. A former Federal Senator and leader of the Democrats, Bartlett has name recognition, experience in and out of Government, and a real passion for public office. He contested the federal seat of Brisbane in the 2010 election, and while he came third, he polled over 20% of the vote. Could he do what a Lord Mayor does? I'm not sure, but I know that the Lord Mayor wears robes and chains, and I suspect Andrew Bartlett would look quite spiffy in them.
As this is "just" a local council election, there's been very little polling, and as I've mentioned in previous posts, very little interest. The lawn signs that are taking over the suburbs seem to be enjoying the warm autumn weather more than their minders in the folding deck chairs. Even during morning peak hour, the roadside campaigners seem disinterested.
Election fatigue is no excuse, though. We have to vote this weekend. This getting-interested business and learning about the candidates is part of our responsibility to the democratic process. What do we want from our local councillors? What do we need from our local council? Of the candidates, who best addresses our issues, our concerns, our priorities?
In the Federal arena, we can talk about the big concepts: capitalism, socialism, foreign affairs, the economy, national security, cultural identity. Down here in local government, the view is different. The concepts tend to involve stable rates, a clean, reliable water supply, regular garbage collection, potholes that don't swallow the family car and decent libraries, preferably with iPads. Rates, roads and rubbish. This is not the stuff of Socrates, nor, I suspect, is it the business of the Lord Mayor. Council employs a CEO for that, and pays him rather more than the Lord Mayor gets.
One automated ReachTEL phone poll conducted earlier this week suggested that the incumbent will be re-elected comfortably. I wish I could get worked up about that, because of the three candidates with any chance, he's the one I have least faith in. Unfortunately, he's also the one who knows what the job is.
Here in Brisbane, I can turn on the tap and clean water comes out. I put out the garbage and a nice man in a big truck takes it away. I drive to work because I can't get there on Public Transport, but my Barina hasn't been swallowed yet. Quirkie has had a whole year to break Brisbane, and he hasn't. Whatever he's doing seems harmless enough.
I reckon I could do that. For a three-hundred-thousand dollar a year package, I too could be harmless.
* Chris Carson did attend the debate, but arrived late.
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Part 2
Holy Flaming Shitballs, Queensland! The LNP has won the most astounding victory most of us can remember. In a house of 89 seats, it's looking like 76 seats will belong to the LNP, with a couple more from their conservative cousins in Katter's Australian Party. It doesn't get much better than this-just ask Clive Palmer, the LNP Godfather. He couldn't contain his excitement, referring to the humbled ALP as "gutless wonders".
It can't be all plain sailing for the LNP though. They have some mountains to climb, and with a mandate like this, the expectation will be enormous. That said, their emotional journey will be vastly different to that of the ALP. It's more akin to the situation that Kevin Rudd's team faced in 2007. We all know what happened there.
Since claiming victory last night, Campbell Newman has repeatedly pledged that his government will act with humility, grace and dignity. Sixteen or so hours in, he has kept that pledge, Clive Palmer notwithstanding.
Newman is wasting no time; he's already held a meeting with his key people, or at least those who were in Brisbane this morning. With the long months of campaigning, and polling solidly in the LNP's favour, they would have had a transition team in place, handling all those details.
Now, take a breath, close your eyes, and imagine the biggest success you can imagine. You and all the people you work with and all your friends get to walk out of your offices and into the executive offices. It's yours.
It's a crazy, heady thing. Those people who to work up there are vacating their offices in grief and shock. The ground is moving under them. Human decency demands that the LNP allow a little space for the old team to packing their bits and bobs into archive boxes and leave the building. Time is impossible when you're pulsing with triumph, adrenaline, and a mandate for drastic change.
The next few weeks will be a series of balancing acts for the new team: the LNP is forming its first government. Who gets the key ministries? (Mr Newman is announcing a few of those as I write this.) Almost 80 people will form the parliamentary team, along with their assistants, staff, egos and agendas. Newman's military experience should come in handy; those guys know how to form functional teams.
And what about the Public Service? Some will go with the Government Restructure - John Bradley, Director General of the Premiers Department, has already been punted. I can't imagine Greg Withers, Assistant Director General of the Department of Climate Change, and Anna Bligh's husband, would be likely to hold onto his job.
And what are the priorities? What can wait? Now versus later. Regional versus state. Liberal versus Nationals. Surety versus doubt. Confidence versus inexperience. Just working out where to start is an overwhelming task. The Government may be new, but the state isn't. Countless projects are underway, and some of those aren't on the LNP's To-Do Lst. Plough on, or abandon projects half-finished?
And what should the new government do about the status of the outgoing team, given the likelihood that the ALP won't win enough seats to be a legitimate Opposition under the Queensland Constitution? Frankly, the idea of such an incredible majority, no Opposition and no Upper House doesn't seem to be in the spirit of democracy.
As an Organisational Change specialist, I can only hope that the new LNP Government gets this right. As we saw last night, Queenslanders can be unforgiving.
But firstly and above all else, on behalf of the newbie-MPs, someone needs to find the loos.
Update: Outgoing Queensland Premier has announced her resignation from public life, forcing a by-election in her seat of South Brisbane. Campbell Newman has confirmed that the LNP will field a candidate in this by-election.
It can't be all plain sailing for the LNP though. They have some mountains to climb, and with a mandate like this, the expectation will be enormous. That said, their emotional journey will be vastly different to that of the ALP. It's more akin to the situation that Kevin Rudd's team faced in 2007. We all know what happened there.
Since claiming victory last night, Campbell Newman has repeatedly pledged that his government will act with humility, grace and dignity. Sixteen or so hours in, he has kept that pledge, Clive Palmer notwithstanding.
Newman is wasting no time; he's already held a meeting with his key people, or at least those who were in Brisbane this morning. With the long months of campaigning, and polling solidly in the LNP's favour, they would have had a transition team in place, handling all those details.
Now, take a breath, close your eyes, and imagine the biggest success you can imagine. You and all the people you work with and all your friends get to walk out of your offices and into the executive offices. It's yours.
It's a crazy, heady thing. Those people who to work up there are vacating their offices in grief and shock. The ground is moving under them. Human decency demands that the LNP allow a little space for the old team to packing their bits and bobs into archive boxes and leave the building. Time is impossible when you're pulsing with triumph, adrenaline, and a mandate for drastic change.
The next few weeks will be a series of balancing acts for the new team: the LNP is forming its first government. Who gets the key ministries? (Mr Newman is announcing a few of those as I write this.) Almost 80 people will form the parliamentary team, along with their assistants, staff, egos and agendas. Newman's military experience should come in handy; those guys know how to form functional teams.
And what about the Public Service? Some will go with the Government Restructure - John Bradley, Director General of the Premiers Department, has already been punted. I can't imagine Greg Withers, Assistant Director General of the Department of Climate Change, and Anna Bligh's husband, would be likely to hold onto his job.
And what are the priorities? What can wait? Now versus later. Regional versus state. Liberal versus Nationals. Surety versus doubt. Confidence versus inexperience. Just working out where to start is an overwhelming task. The Government may be new, but the state isn't. Countless projects are underway, and some of those aren't on the LNP's To-Do Lst. Plough on, or abandon projects half-finished?
And what should the new government do about the status of the outgoing team, given the likelihood that the ALP won't win enough seats to be a legitimate Opposition under the Queensland Constitution? Frankly, the idea of such an incredible majority, no Opposition and no Upper House doesn't seem to be in the spirit of democracy.
As an Organisational Change specialist, I can only hope that the new LNP Government gets this right. As we saw last night, Queenslanders can be unforgiving.
But firstly and above all else, on behalf of the newbie-MPs, someone needs to find the loos.
Update: Outgoing Queensland Premier has announced her resignation from public life, forcing a by-election in her seat of South Brisbane. Campbell Newman has confirmed that the LNP will field a candidate in this by-election.
Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Part 1
To the surprise of many in and around the Queensland ALP, the sun came up this morning. It must have felt like the end of the world last night as seat after seat fell to the LNP. Commentators recalculated and made new predictions and recalculated again, lowering the number of seats the ALP would retain, until the mind-numbing truth: they wouldn't crack double figures.
I hate to be the one to break it to them: for the few who scraped by and retained their seats, the worst is yet to come.
The Survivors
Close your eyes. Imagine your office or your school or your newsroom.Think for a moment about the people you work with. Good people, mostly; friendly, competent, familiar. You share most of the same values and priorities and sense of purpose. You've worked with these people for years.
Uhoh! Instant restructure and a major round of redundancies. When you go into your workplace tomorrow, more than 40 of the fifty-odd people in your team are gone. Think of the four people you work most closely with. Whoosh. You're the only one left. The others are literally redundant, as of last night.
Some of your former colleagues saw it coming, but many didn't. You knew something was up, but you're staggered by the magnitude of the devastation.
There's worse to come. You were in the department that made all the decisions. You were the where the action is. Presto-changeo! You and your remaining colleagues have been moved to the other side of the building, to the smaller offices. Your job description has changed. You're not making the decisions any more.
And now, the most galling of all: your former colleagues are being replaced by a group of mainly new recruits. They don't know the business. They don't even know where the toilets are...but they know better than you, and they'll be making the decisions. They'll be sitting in the good seats where you used to sit, looking at you, blaming you for everything that's gone wrong, even when it's not your fault. They'll criticise the achievements you're most proud of, and you'll sit by as they soak up the praise for the work your team started but was unable to finish.
Did I mention that you might be paid less than you were, and have to learn new areas of expertise...all while worrying about your former colleagues and trying to ignore the nagging survivor guilt, and that inappropriate little voice that wishes you'd been booted out like 85% of your mates.
Welcome to ALP Survivor Hell
The Vanquished
There are surely a lot of hangovers around Queensland this morning. A few well-known ALP MPs - now former MPs - have logged into Twitter to thank their supporters and remove the "MP" from their Twitter handles.
Fifty-one people have been judged, and for a whole range of reasons, more than 40 have been replaced.
Some, like Paul Lucas, knew this day was coming, and took the opportunity to retire. Others thought they'd survive this triennial performance review. Sadly, some excellent members of parliament were just in the wrong seat at the wrong time and were discarded, such was the appetite for change.
Some have plans, many don't.
But today they sleep, start to scrub away the emotional grime left after a long campaign, and be with their families and friends.
Yesterday was a catastrophic loss for the ALP in Queensland. Survivors and victims of the Blue Tide will grieve, mourn and find people to blame.
Denial...Anger...Bargaining...Depression...Acceptance. Coming soon to an ALP Branch Near You.
In case no-one else remembers, I'd like to thank these people for their service.
Thoughts on the LNP later.
I hate to be the one to break it to them: for the few who scraped by and retained their seats, the worst is yet to come.
The Survivors
Close your eyes. Imagine your office or your school or your newsroom.Think for a moment about the people you work with. Good people, mostly; friendly, competent, familiar. You share most of the same values and priorities and sense of purpose. You've worked with these people for years.
Uhoh! Instant restructure and a major round of redundancies. When you go into your workplace tomorrow, more than 40 of the fifty-odd people in your team are gone. Think of the four people you work most closely with. Whoosh. You're the only one left. The others are literally redundant, as of last night.
Some of your former colleagues saw it coming, but many didn't. You knew something was up, but you're staggered by the magnitude of the devastation.
There's worse to come. You were in the department that made all the decisions. You were the where the action is. Presto-changeo! You and your remaining colleagues have been moved to the other side of the building, to the smaller offices. Your job description has changed. You're not making the decisions any more.
And now, the most galling of all: your former colleagues are being replaced by a group of mainly new recruits. They don't know the business. They don't even know where the toilets are...but they know better than you, and they'll be making the decisions. They'll be sitting in the good seats where you used to sit, looking at you, blaming you for everything that's gone wrong, even when it's not your fault. They'll criticise the achievements you're most proud of, and you'll sit by as they soak up the praise for the work your team started but was unable to finish.
Did I mention that you might be paid less than you were, and have to learn new areas of expertise...all while worrying about your former colleagues and trying to ignore the nagging survivor guilt, and that inappropriate little voice that wishes you'd been booted out like 85% of your mates.
Welcome to ALP Survivor Hell
The Vanquished
There are surely a lot of hangovers around Queensland this morning. A few well-known ALP MPs - now former MPs - have logged into Twitter to thank their supporters and remove the "MP" from their Twitter handles.
Fifty-one people have been judged, and for a whole range of reasons, more than 40 have been replaced.
Some, like Paul Lucas, knew this day was coming, and took the opportunity to retire. Others thought they'd survive this triennial performance review. Sadly, some excellent members of parliament were just in the wrong seat at the wrong time and were discarded, such was the appetite for change.
Some have plans, many don't.
But today they sleep, start to scrub away the emotional grime left after a long campaign, and be with their families and friends.
Yesterday was a catastrophic loss for the ALP in Queensland. Survivors and victims of the Blue Tide will grieve, mourn and find people to blame.
Denial...Anger...Bargaining...Depression...Acceptance. Coming soon to an ALP Branch Near You.
In case no-one else remembers, I'd like to thank these people for their service.
Thoughts on the LNP later.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Election Morning Through The Eyes of Twitter
The Queensland Election has been a trending topic on and off all morning. Here are a few tweets that caught my eye.
7am:
The feeling in the air these last days of campaigning suggests that the ALP has all but given up. Almost. Politics is like sport: you don't give up until...well, you don't give up. Ask Karen Struthers.
@KarenStruthers Anna's Labor want a future Qld that is strong &fair - dont risk an all too powerful LNP #dontvotenewman Support your local MP?
8am
CanDoCampbell, the fake Twitter account and star of the extended campaign on Twitter, had an unexpectedly zen moment! Que Sera Sera?
@Can_Do_Campbell My thought for today. What ever happens &who ever wins, it's democracy in action, &on Monday life goes on. Just be grateful we get to vote
9am
Unbelievable. The nasty has started early in the day. There's no need for this. In fact, there's never an excuse for this, and it may even be illegal.
@4CThinking Imbecile #LNP nutter ripping #ALP election banners off fence at Yeronga SS - way of the future for this mob with massive majority? #qldvotes
10am
What is it about Kevin Rudd & hope? I see his name...and I feel hopeful. That's how it was in 2007, and for some of us, it still is.
@KRuddMP Kate Jones has done a great job for her community, now she needs their support. That's why I'm working to help #KeepKate KRudd
Against all reason, I felt a tiny surge of hope, that if Kevin is there, helping, maybe Kate will get her miracle.
Kevin isn't the only federal Pollie from the Government who is lending support via Twitter. I haven't seen any from the Liberal side (and I do follow both sides). Is that LNP confidence, complacency, or disinterest?In the meantime, some support for the ALP:
@JuliaGillard Ashgrove, Keep Kate today. @KateJonesMP is a local who has fought for your community for a long time. #QldVotes JG
@MikeKellyMP Find it funny that Campbell Newman can't even vote for himself in today's election. #auspol
11am
I spoke too soon. Tony Abbott has tweeted. Twice. I can't decide if his tone is so different because his team has this election locked, or if it's just his personality. Even in victory, he sounds less than engaged:
@TonyAbbottMHR @Campbell_Newman has run a great campaign. He will get Queensland back on track #qldvotes
@TonyAbbottMHR Every vote in every seat in Qld matters. The only way to end Labor's 20 years of neglect is to vote for your local LNP candidate #qldvotes
And one of my favourite Tweeps has some words of wisdom.
@SuperTriviaGuy When you go to vote please remember this is not a war. You don't win by being rude to people handing out How To Vote info. Be polite.
It's not all about the voting though. A lot of it is about the sausage sizzles and lamington stalls. Perhaps the food incentives should be compulsory.
@totalquailure: Ooh, cake stalls. I mean, DEMOCRACY Dammit #qldvotes
@its_Mella @couriermail there's cupcakes?! I'd rather cupcakes then snags. Gimme sweets any day!
And when you get crowds of people forced together, stuff happens.
@Couriermail LNP candidate David Chrisafulli's wife, Tegan, fainted after seeing an elderly voter, known as “Joy”, trip and fall, cutting her knee open.
But really, it's all about the voters.
@MurrayWattMP Nice couple just told me they normally vote LNP but are with me because of what I've done locally. Now that's #electiondayfun!
A final note of TwitWisdom:
@scottspark Avalanche of angst over #qldvotes outcome on Twitter - guys, dolls, remember - politics does not rule your life unchecked. Breathe.
7am:
The feeling in the air these last days of campaigning suggests that the ALP has all but given up. Almost. Politics is like sport: you don't give up until...well, you don't give up. Ask Karen Struthers.
@KarenStruthers Anna's Labor want a future Qld that is strong &fair - dont risk an all too powerful LNP #dontvotenewman Support your local MP?
8am
CanDoCampbell, the fake Twitter account and star of the extended campaign on Twitter, had an unexpectedly zen moment! Que Sera Sera?
@Can_Do_Campbell My thought for today. What ever happens &who ever wins, it's democracy in action, &on Monday life goes on. Just be grateful we get to vote
9am
Unbelievable. The nasty has started early in the day. There's no need for this. In fact, there's never an excuse for this, and it may even be illegal.
@4CThinking Imbecile #LNP nutter ripping #ALP election banners off fence at Yeronga SS - way of the future for this mob with massive majority? #qldvotes
10am
What is it about Kevin Rudd & hope? I see his name...and I feel hopeful. That's how it was in 2007, and for some of us, it still is.
@KRuddMP Kate Jones has done a great job for her community, now she needs their support. That's why I'm working to help #KeepKate KRudd
Against all reason, I felt a tiny surge of hope, that if Kevin is there, helping, maybe Kate will get her miracle.
Kevin isn't the only federal Pollie from the Government who is lending support via Twitter. I haven't seen any from the Liberal side (and I do follow both sides). Is that LNP confidence, complacency, or disinterest?In the meantime, some support for the ALP:
@JuliaGillard Ashgrove, Keep Kate today. @KateJonesMP is a local who has fought for your community for a long time. #QldVotes JG
@MikeKellyMP Find it funny that Campbell Newman can't even vote for himself in today's election. #auspol
11am
I spoke too soon. Tony Abbott has tweeted. Twice. I can't decide if his tone is so different because his team has this election locked, or if it's just his personality. Even in victory, he sounds less than engaged:
@TonyAbbottMHR @Campbell_Newman has run a great campaign. He will get Queensland back on track #qldvotes
@TonyAbbottMHR Every vote in every seat in Qld matters. The only way to end Labor's 20 years of neglect is to vote for your local LNP candidate #qldvotes
And one of my favourite Tweeps has some words of wisdom.
@SuperTriviaGuy When you go to vote please remember this is not a war. You don't win by being rude to people handing out How To Vote info. Be polite.
It's not all about the voting though. A lot of it is about the sausage sizzles and lamington stalls. Perhaps the food incentives should be compulsory.
@totalquailure: Ooh, cake stalls. I mean, DEMOCRACY Dammit #qldvotes
@its_Mella @couriermail there's cupcakes?! I'd rather cupcakes then snags. Gimme sweets any day!
And when you get crowds of people forced together, stuff happens.
@Couriermail LNP candidate David Chrisafulli's wife, Tegan, fainted after seeing an elderly voter, known as “Joy”, trip and fall, cutting her knee open.
But really, it's all about the voters.
@MurrayWattMP Nice couple just told me they normally vote LNP but are with me because of what I've done locally. Now that's #electiondayfun!
A final note of TwitWisdom:
@scottspark Avalanche of angst over #qldvotes outcome on Twitter - guys, dolls, remember - politics does not rule your life unchecked. Breathe.
What Kind Of Day Has It Been?
It's after midnight on Friday night - Saturday morning, really - and I think it's time now to admit that tomorrow will be one of those rare days when a state officially flips ends of the political divide. Tomorrow, the ALP Government that has steered Queensland through most of the post-Joh years will take a monumental beating, if the polls are to be believed.
Unfortunately for the ALP true believers, the polls tend to be in agreement with each other. They aren't close either; the LNP is going to win tomorrow, and win big.
Since the 2009 election, the ALholds held government with 51 seats. By this time tomorrow, that number could be approaching single digits. Thirty or forty good people will lose their jobs tomorrow.
Those people will be replaced by new members of parliament from the LNP, and possibly a couple from Katter's Australian Party. There might even be a Green.
These are big changes, and while commentators will be talking policies, and punters will be celebrating - or not - an infinite number of smaller changes will be taking place in the lives of so many people.
Outgoing Premier Anna Bligh will probably sleep in on Sunday. Another thirty or forty outgoing members will probably do the same. There'll be wounds to heal, hangovers to endure and lives to re-arrange.
It doesn't stop there; electorate office staff may change. Campaign staff will move on to the next challenge, some within the new LNP Government. Media will change focus from the campaign to the formation of a new state government. The campaign buses will need new paint jobs and new missions. Public Service Executives will be nervous.
It will be easier on the outgoing ALP members, although the emotional impact will be cruel. Most of them will be allowed to disappear quietly into their lives. The higher profile ministers won't be as lucky. They'll be watched, at least for a while. I hope they'll all keep doing great things. Anything less is a cop out.
Anna Bligh will probably retain her seat, but will she continue to lead the ALP in Opposition, or will she remove herself to the back bench? Will there be a back bench, or will the ALP have so few seats that every member will have to step up?
And Kate Jones? This week's polling suggests that she won't defeat Campbell Newman. Kate's young - 33 - with a high profile and a degree in journalism. Kate can do anything she wants to.
Meanwhile, Campbell Newman will be thinking about formalising all those ideas he's been tossing around. He'll need to get in a room with Bruce McIver and the LNP chiefs to form a functional government from a group of politicians high on adrenaline and unused to governing. It's heady stuff.
Newman has the experience as team leader, but no experience at state level. He'll have help though; a winning LNP team would include a rich vein of former leaders, although their experience will be in opposition.
It's a huge change in perspective, from a position of negativity and powerlessness to a position where your decisions will be enacted. Please be careful; these aren't just concepts or ideals now.
I hope both sides have learned from recent history. I hope that whatever remains of the Queensland ALP on Sunday takes note of the Federal Opposition and chooses a different approach. The role of the Opposition in Queensland is so much more important than most Oppositions as Queensland has no Upper House. The ALP will need to do more than oppose; they'll need to oversee the Government from a position of political impotence. With numbers as insignificant as maybe 15% of the seats, they need to be the other half of Queensland's democracy.
And the LNP Government? What are their challenges? Firstly, they'll need to stop campaigning and actually govern. Secondly, they'll need to accept that things will look different from the grown up seats. Some of their policies and promises might not survive the reality test; they need to make decisions that are right for Queensland, not decisions that will get them re-elected.
Finally, they need to remember who they're governing for, and that's all Queenslanders. The LNP won't win because Queenslanders love them and believe in them. The LNP will win because they aren't the Labor Party and because it's time for a change. Somewhere around half of us will be voting for someone else.
In all likelihood,Queensland will elect an LNP Government tomorrow. It'll be up to them to earn our respect.
Unfortunately for the ALP true believers, the polls tend to be in agreement with each other. They aren't close either; the LNP is going to win tomorrow, and win big.
Since the 2009 election, the ALholds held government with 51 seats. By this time tomorrow, that number could be approaching single digits. Thirty or forty good people will lose their jobs tomorrow.
Those people will be replaced by new members of parliament from the LNP, and possibly a couple from Katter's Australian Party. There might even be a Green.
These are big changes, and while commentators will be talking policies, and punters will be celebrating - or not - an infinite number of smaller changes will be taking place in the lives of so many people.
Outgoing Premier Anna Bligh will probably sleep in on Sunday. Another thirty or forty outgoing members will probably do the same. There'll be wounds to heal, hangovers to endure and lives to re-arrange.
It doesn't stop there; electorate office staff may change. Campaign staff will move on to the next challenge, some within the new LNP Government. Media will change focus from the campaign to the formation of a new state government. The campaign buses will need new paint jobs and new missions. Public Service Executives will be nervous.
It will be easier on the outgoing ALP members, although the emotional impact will be cruel. Most of them will be allowed to disappear quietly into their lives. The higher profile ministers won't be as lucky. They'll be watched, at least for a while. I hope they'll all keep doing great things. Anything less is a cop out.
Anna Bligh will probably retain her seat, but will she continue to lead the ALP in Opposition, or will she remove herself to the back bench? Will there be a back bench, or will the ALP have so few seats that every member will have to step up?
And Kate Jones? This week's polling suggests that she won't defeat Campbell Newman. Kate's young - 33 - with a high profile and a degree in journalism. Kate can do anything she wants to.
Meanwhile, Campbell Newman will be thinking about formalising all those ideas he's been tossing around. He'll need to get in a room with Bruce McIver and the LNP chiefs to form a functional government from a group of politicians high on adrenaline and unused to governing. It's heady stuff.
Newman has the experience as team leader, but no experience at state level. He'll have help though; a winning LNP team would include a rich vein of former leaders, although their experience will be in opposition.
It's a huge change in perspective, from a position of negativity and powerlessness to a position where your decisions will be enacted. Please be careful; these aren't just concepts or ideals now.
I hope both sides have learned from recent history. I hope that whatever remains of the Queensland ALP on Sunday takes note of the Federal Opposition and chooses a different approach. The role of the Opposition in Queensland is so much more important than most Oppositions as Queensland has no Upper House. The ALP will need to do more than oppose; they'll need to oversee the Government from a position of political impotence. With numbers as insignificant as maybe 15% of the seats, they need to be the other half of Queensland's democracy.
And the LNP Government? What are their challenges? Firstly, they'll need to stop campaigning and actually govern. Secondly, they'll need to accept that things will look different from the grown up seats. Some of their policies and promises might not survive the reality test; they need to make decisions that are right for Queensland, not decisions that will get them re-elected.
Finally, they need to remember who they're governing for, and that's all Queenslanders. The LNP won't win because Queenslanders love them and believe in them. The LNP will win because they aren't the Labor Party and because it's time for a change. Somewhere around half of us will be voting for someone else.
In all likelihood,Queensland will elect an LNP Government tomorrow. It'll be up to them to earn our respect.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Electoral Disconnect
It seems that we’re always in an election campaign period of some kind.
Here in Queensland, we’re just over halfway through a five week campaign which ends with the state election on March 24. Local Government elections are being held in late April, and while the Federal Election isn’t due until the second half of 2013, the campaigning never stops in a hung parliament. Add to that the ongoing coverage of Putin’s election maneouvres in Russia, and the never-ending round of Republican primaries in the USA.
The problem is the majority of this activity is just bad campaigning. It’s not engaging; it’s not policy-driven; it’s not fair to voters.
The Campaigners
Q: What is the purpose of an election campaign?
A: To win an election.
Q: How does a campaign help you to win an election?
A: By convincing enough people to vote for you.
Q: How do you convince people to vote for you?
This is where life – or politics – gets interesting. There are two simple answers to this question. You can do some or all of the following:
· Promise to introduce policies that people want
· Promise to end situations they don’t like (particularly good if you’re in opposition)
· Convince people that your opposition’s policies are bad – or worse than yours
· Make your opposition look untrustworthy, dishonest, weak, morally questionable or worse
The Electorate
Q: Why vote?
A: To influence the outcome of an election; to help my “team” win.
Q: Which is your “team”?
A: The one which is going to best improve my life and look after my issues
Q: How do you know which team that is?
And again, this is where the rubber hits the electoral road. It will be the best combination of these options:
· The team that promises to implement the policies that support my issues
· The team that promises to end policies that make my life harder, or that conflict with my belief systems
· The team that appeals to me more
· The team that seems most honest and trustworthy, committed, and with my values
I could ask how we, the humble members of the electorate, make these decisions, but to be honest, I’m a little scared of the answers. I mentioned in a previous blog that one voter stated that she wasn’t going to vote for the party she thought would lose. Other factors that help determine how a voter will vote include a combination of policy, personal appeal, past experiences, name recognition, candidate’s reputation, gut feel and sheer luck.
Despite all of these people running for election, what are we hearing most about? We’re hearing about the personal and family finances of candidates, ancient drink-driving offences, swingers parties, porn on websites, racist comments, who lives where, the name of the candidate’s holiday property, uncertainty around leadership, the usual bullshit about marriage status / children / sexual orientation / ethnicity / religious affiliation and favourite jacket.
I’m sure all of that is interesting to someone, but not much of it helps me to make up my mind about who to vote for.
I’m fortunate in that I have an excellent local member. He communicates well so we know what he’s doing, and he’s always accessible. He has earned my vote, though not through any campaigning activities. He’s just a great local member who scraped in in 2009 and has worked hard.
For me, it’s not necessarily about the campaigning, which is a good thing, because on the basis of the last three weeks alone, I’m not impressed enough with anyone to consider voting for them.
Of course, the media is focussing on two areas: the leaders, and Ashgrove…or they would be, were it not for the constant stream of distractions that are clogging up the news feed. There seems to be an ever-widening gap between what the campaigns want, what the media want and what the voters want.
As voters, we own the outcome. We need to take more responsibility for ensuring that we have the information we need.
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