CAAANBRA: Campaignomics

Chris Berg was bang on the money last week when he stated in The Drum that now is "Not the time to convince us of economic prowess". He was right again when he claimed that every election is about the economy. If we're being honest, its never a good bet to expect to win points or elections by talking about the economy, and Mr Berg's article is one reason why.

As I've stated repeatedly, what you see depends on where you stand. Mr Berg's two key arguments are based on the economic figures released less than two weeks ago by Treasurer Bowen and Senator Wong, and a question mark over the credibility of the major ratings agencies. Both are fair arguments, but this campaign isn't about selling the economy as healthy; it's about winning an election.

All the ALP has to do is convince the electorate that they are better economic managers than the Coalition, and Chris Berg knows this. When better than the midst of the dullest, least engaging, election campaign in living memory? When better than now?

The earlier financial statement released just before the election was called, and the PEFO, aren't flash on two fronts. Firstly, they're potentially scary numbers, easy for the opposition to frame and feed to the media. Secondly, they make the Government's ability to read the tea leaves look about as solid as the Liberal Party's policy pamphlet. 

The major ratings agencies which have rated Australia's economy as Triple A are, according to Mr Berg, largely responsible for the Global Financial Crisis, and therefore, nothing to get excited about. 

That's one perspective. Here's another: it doesn't matter that much. What does matter is the message. In order to convince Australia that our economy is in grave danger, you first need to convince Australia a deficit - any deficit - is bad. That's not hard to do; the imagery is negative. The Coalition's message was a simple sell, assisted by a compliant media. 

What does matter is that Australia, under Labor's guidance, avoided the full financial disaster of the GFC. Our official interest rate is low, but it hasn't bottomed out. In fact, it's being used as it was designed to be used - as a control mechanism. Productivity, inflation, unemployment: all of the standard measures are solid. We know the counter-argument, that it was the surplus left by the Howard Government that enabled Australia to skate around the perimeters of the GFC. Why has that argument never been challenged? 

The numbers are what they are. They aren't the entirety of this election campaign, other than by accident. As John Howard reminded us recently, context is everything. The credit ratings are a comparative measure. Australia is rated higher than about 95% of the countries in the world is noteworthy, just not hugely important. 

Having said that, the biggest failure of the past six years of Rudd and Gillard Labor Governments has been their inability to sell good news. We have heard ad nauseum about debt and deficit and big black holes and bigger new taxes and failed this and dodgy that. We've heard relatively little about the governments' successful navigation of the GFC, or the relatively smooth implementation of the carbon economy. These things happened. No spin required.

Ask the question: are we better off now than we were under the Howard-Costello team? Voters seem to be terrified that the cost of living is being driven ever higher by the loathesome carbon tax when in fact, 

Demographic Analyst David Chalke from Australia Scan is another who suggests a disconnect between economic reality and economic perception. The fear-of-the-future mindset has seen more and more discretionary income squirrelled away for that rainy day instead of being spent.

Feeding into that fear is the haze surrounding costings for the Coalition's policies and promises. Will they or won't they release their numbers, and if so, when? In 2010, the Coalition decided that they didn't trust Treasury, and had their coatings independently audited by WHK Horwarth, who produced a flimsy one-pager just two days prior to the election. It was subsequently shown that the "audit" provided to the Coalition, and subsequently to Australian voters, breached professional standards and was the result of  cosy deal between Horwath and the Coalition.

This time around, would-be Treasurer has ummed and ahhed at Olympic standards, suggesting at one point that if we wanted a Coalition bottom line, we should add it up for ourselves. The Coalition's reluctance to share their costings has become the basis for Labor's first really provocative ad of the campaign.

And Joe Hockey's response is to assure us that economics are boring and we don't care anyway. Chris Berg was right - now isn't he time for Labor to sell their economic credentials. At this stage, all they have to do is show up.

The Happiness Olympics

In the past 12 months, I’ve heard three respected medical professionals - a GP, a psychiatrist and a psychologist- recommend that people who suffer from depression should avoid news and current affairs. What does that say about our news? Perhaps we're all nearing saturation point when it comes to bad news. We should be: it's unrelenting.

A quick browse through internet news sites on a typical day is nothing short of dismal: most days, there’s not a single good news story amongst the headlines. Not one. It’s bulletin after bulletin of politics, wars, bad news about the weather, the economy, the state of tea in China, plus murders and mayhem, refugees, redundancies, deaths, taxes…and if you watch the so-called Current Affairs programmes after the news, you’d be losing the will to live.

The situation may improve once you get to the Sports section. There are always winners, even if your team wasn't one of them. But brace yourselves. The sports news is making its regular leap from the back pages to the headlines. That’s bad news in itself if you’re not interested in the Olympics, but for those who are, prepare for sixteen days of uninterrupted thrills.

As Aussies, should we be expecting two weeks of triumphant sports headlines? Should we be begging our mental health experts to let us watch the Olympics and celebrate every win with a quiet cup of tea and a civilised ‘whoop’, or should we hide ourselves under a pile of old Buffy DVDs until the whole thing is over?

Even if the thought of 16 nights of Olympic competition brings you out in a rash, there is some incredible human competition coming up, and it will be slathered all over the headlines and social media. Resistance is futile. It’s already started with Natalie Cook’s threats to protest if the Australian flag bearer is not a woman, and has been followed by some typically tasteless comments from Eddie McGuire about Lauryn Mark’s pictorial in a mens’ magazine, to the entirely offensive comments about Leisel Jones being in less than race form. But if you’d rather watch jelly set than a moment of Olympics coverage, you will need to avoid the media from now until about 14th August.

I know what I’ll be doing. I’ll be ignoring the quasi-militaristic undercurrents of Olympic cults and cash grabs that the IPA’s Chris Berg wrote about in last weekend’s Fairfax papers, and I'll be yelling at the tellie. I love the Olympic Games. It’s the ultimate spectator festival – enough sports to satisfy just about everyone, peerless national fervour, unrivalled opportunity to perve on the kind of bodies we could have if we weren't so devoted to the couch, along with a little culture and a little cringe mixed in.

Luckily, my partner shares my love of the Olympic spectacle. We'll be studying the tv guides; including Pay TV, Australians will have ten separate Olympic broadcast channels. We'll have our viewing preferences colour-coded in the guide with fluro highlighters. My alarm is already set to go off at 5:30am on Saturday in preparation for the live telecast of the Opening Ceremony, accompanied by something appropriately British for breakfast. (Probably not kippers - other suggestions welcome.) For two weeks, we'll sit up all night, and sleep during the day - yes, both of us are on leave for the Olympics.

It’s a tragedy that there’s no non-sporting equivalent for the rest of us who can’t run like the wind or leap tall crossbars in a single bound (preceded by a decent runup). With the notable exception of artistic sports like gymnastics, synchronised swimming and some equestrian events, sport tends to be measurable and absolute. We could convene a world Cooking Olympics or Drama Olympics or Haiku Olympics or Customer Service Olympics or Landscape Oil Painting but how would you judge it?

The great thing about being a fan of the Olympics – and I suppose a fan of sports in general – is that it celebrates achievement. Traditionally, Australian Olympians are strong in Swimming, Hockey, Cycling, Rowing, Sailing and Equestrian, and these are all great spectator sports. Of course we want to see Australia win, but when we don’t, we see our Aussies try. We get to celebrate, and regardless of how many or how few medals Australia wins in London, we will be proud.

And in between the news of Aussie triumphs, personal bests and inspiring performances, there'll be more of the usual. In Queensland, Premier Newman will continue to wield his axe, hoping the Games will wipe his bad news off the front pages. In America, Obama and Romney will continue their campaigns for the Presidency. Prime Minister Gillard's rivals might just be able to keep their powder dry until after the Games. In Syria, revolt will continue and in Afghanistan, so will the war. Asylum Seekers will continue to board rickety ferries in search of a better life in the Land Down Under. Life and death go on, but probably not on the front pages.

That sounds like something that mental health practitioners would support.


Note: This blog is not medical advice. If you are being treated for depression, don't stop your medication and watch the tellie, okay? Equally, if you think you might be depressed, please see your GP as soon as you can. You're not alone.